AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2024

German companies are more positive about the future at their international locations than they were in autumn 2023 – but with very subdued optimism.

For the survey, the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) and the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHK) analyzed feedback from nearly 4,300 globally active AHK member companies.

The key findings of the survey:

• German companies are once again predominantly optimistic about the development of the global economy at their international locations. They are more confident than they have been for two years.
• According to the survey, almost a third (31 percent) of the companies surveyed expect an economic upturn at their locations in the current year. In autumn 2023, the figure was 22%. One in five companies (19%) still anticipate an economic slowdown, compared to 28% in autumn.
• Globally, the business situation has barely improved compared to the previous survey. It is still below the level of the previous year 2023 and slightly below the long-term average. Business expectations have also increased only minimally. Accordingly, companies are also holding back on investments at their international locations.
• Companies at their international locations still see low demand as the greatest business risk (45 percent). The risk of uncertain economic policy conditions has risen slightly for the second time in a row to 43 percent. In addition to economic risks, the structural challenge of a shortage of skilled labor remains another key risk for companies with 39 percent of responses.
• The current results of the AHK World Business Outlook show that the signs are pointing to a slight recovery in the global economy. However, companies are not yet able to benefit sufficiently from this due to uncertainty and risks.
• The DIHK is adjusting its export forecast for 2024: After a decline in German exports of -1.8 percent in 2023, exports will at least reach a black zero this year.

While companies at their locations in Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China) are more optimistic and significantly raise their business expectations. The region, in particular in Southeast Asia, is developing dynamically and remains an important destination for diversifying supply chains. "The German economy is particularly dependent on certain key productions and trading partners," explains Volker Treier. "Here, we must broaden our procurement sources and sales markets more than before. Risks must be better diversified. The goal is to build resilience in procurement."

As part of the global network of Chambers of Commerce Abroad with more than 150 locations in 93 countries, AHK Vietnam is a strategic and reliable #PartnerInVietnam for German companies. Our competent team advises companies and actively supports diversification by helping them enter new markets and find suitable local business partners.

In the run-up to the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2024, the DIHK published the ideas paper "Diversification of Supply Chains" (in German). The paper assesses the current challenges facing the German economy when it comes to diversifying supply chains. The paper also develops policy recommendations for successful diversification.